At the ‘heat pump breakthrough’ conference in November, the figures from the National heat pump trend report 2024-2025 were presented. The presentation made it clear that in 2024, sales of heat pumps will have fallen from 154,000 to 103,000. The expectation for the coming years is that sales will not increase beyond 125,000 units, which means that the target of 1 million installed heat pumps in 2030 will be a tough nut to crack.
Decline in sales in the private market
The decline in heat pump sales is mainly attributable to the private market. Due to rising gas prices, heat pump sales rose to a record high of 154,000 in 2022. The researchers at DNE Research conclude that the cause of the disappointing sales is mainly due to the current low gas price. Due to this low gas price, there is less urgency to switch to a heat pump in the short term.
Utility market shows growth
Where the private market shows a decline, DNE Research sees an increase in sales in the utility market. The number of heat pumps sold for the business market has increased by 8%. And the total thermal capacity of these heat pumps has even increased by 14%. This means that the business community is guided more by long-term objectives that are in line with the European decarbonisation policy.
Hybrid heat pump popular
At the moment, the hybrid heat pump is very popular, says Paul Verhagen of Eco Heating Systems. With this system, an air-water heat pump is connected to a gas-driven central heating boiler. The heat pump takes care of the largest part of the heat demand and the central heating boiler steps in at peak times. Purchasing a hybrid system is advantageous, since a heat pump with a smaller capacity is required. With a hybrid heat pump you will save an average of around 75% on your current gas consumption.
Subsidie wordt verhoogd op warmtepompen met meer dan 13kW vermogen
In 2025, a correction will be made to the subsidy scheme for heat pumps. The subsidy amount will be increased for heat pumps with a capacity of more than 13kW. This is a favourable development for the utility market, because it will be extra advantageous to purchase a (hybrid) heat pump. Look for more information about the subsidy scheme on our website.
Download the trend report
Would you like to know more about the trends for 2025 regarding the heat pump? Then Download the National Heat Pump Trend Report 2024/2025 from Dutch New Energy Research.
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